Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W30-15 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W34-20 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 41.1% | 98.0% |
| 6-2 | 47.0% | 13.6% |
| 5-3 | 11.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.3% (-0.4%) | 47.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 48.3% (+1.6%) | 46.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 47.5% (+0.8%) | 46.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 59.2% (+12.5%) | 45.9% (-0.8%) | |
| 72.5% (+25.8%) | 13.5% (-33.2%) | |
| 46.6% (-0.1%) | 47.3% (+0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LSU
Mississippi State
FloridaGeorgia
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaCCG: 72.5% • Scenario: 56.2%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.0%
39.1%Any 1 loss
17.2%
46.8%
98.4%
0.4%
98.2%
1.6%
18.5%
30.3%
3.3%
14.4%Any 2 losses
13.9%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%20.0%
0.3%18.6%
1.3%2.3%
0.6%2.2%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03