Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W23-17 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W28-18 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 24.3% | 86.8% |
| 6-2 | 68.3% | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 7.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.9% (+3.2%) | 14.2% (-7.5%) | |
| 2.2% (-19.5%) | 22.2% (+0.5%) | |
| 21.8% (+0.1%) | 21.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.3% (+4.6%) | 21.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 21.5% (-0.2%) | 22.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 21.7% (+0.0%) | 21.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LSUTennessee
Oklahoma
Florida
Ole Miss
South CarolinaCCG: 35.1% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaTennesseeCCG: 25.5% • Scenario: 68.2%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.8%
24.0%Any 1 loss
1.2%
67.8%
86.3%
0.2%
8.8%
0.6%
7.6%
2.1%
0.6%
64.8%Any 2 losses
1.3%
0.7%13.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.7%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03