Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L6-52 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-49 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:3% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:8% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:17% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:32% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:32% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:11% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 60.2% |
| 5-3 | 1.1% | 4.4% |
| 4-4 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 17.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 11.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 28.5%
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08