Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:88% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:35% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:98% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.5% | 99.6% |
| 7-1 | 13.4% | 65.8% |
| 6-2 | 34.9% | 2.5% |
| 5-3 | 35.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.3% (+0.2%) | 11.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.1% (-0.1%) | 11.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 11.0% (-0.2%) | 11.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 11.0% (-0.2%) | 11.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (-0.0%) | 11.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.3% (+0.1%) | 11.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.4%) | 11.9% (+0.7%) | |
| 11.1% (-0.1%) | 11.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.0%) | 11.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.0%) | 11.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.3% (+0.1%) | 11.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.8%) | 11.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.0% (-0.2%) | 14.1% (+3.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.6%
1.5%Any 1 loss
65.8%
13.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
82.4%
0.2%
80.6%
0.1%
78.5%
<0.1%
76.0%
0.2%
73.1%
2.0%
72.6%
0.1%
65.9%
2.7%
62.4%
7.5%Any 2 losses
3.3%
34.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
0.2%72.2%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%58.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
1.1%7.1%
0.3%6.7%
0.3%6.7%
0.8%6.0%
0.4%5.6%
0.4%5.4%
0.2%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
0.5%4.0%
1.1%3.8%
0.4%3.3%
0.1%1.9%
13.8%1.9%
3.5%1.3%
10.2%Any 3 losses
3.1%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.5%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08