Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W44-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:31% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:25% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:32% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 55.9% |
| 7-2 | 1.6% | 9.3% |
| 6-3 | 6.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 17.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 15.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
63.9%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
64.3%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
40.9%
<0.1%
37.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
25.5%
0.5%92.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
9.0%
1.0%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.8%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%Any 4 losses
1.8%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08