CincinnatiBearcats

1-1 T1st (0-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsTowsonTOW	W38-20
2	9/07	vsPittsburghPITT	L27-28
3	9/14	@Miami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:30%
4	9/21	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:56%
5	9/28	@Texas TechTTU	Win prob:30%
7	10/12	@UCFUCF	Win prob:15%
8	10/19	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:43%
9	10/26	@ColoradoCOLO	Win prob:55%
11	11/09	vsWest VirginiaWVU	Win prob:39%
12	11/16	@Iowa StateISU	Win prob:18%
13	11/23	@Kansas StateKSU	Win prob:7%
14	11/30	vsTCUTCU	Win prob:31%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0%	0%
8-1	0.0%	100.0%
7-2	0.4%	41.2%
6-3	2.4%	2.5%
5-4	9.0%	0%
4-5	20.8%	0%
3-6	29.2%	0%
2-7	24.7%	0%
1-8	11.3%	0%
0-9	2.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

52.4%

23.8%

9.5%

9.5%

4.8%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
UCFUCF@TCUTCU	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Texas StateTXST	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
ArizonaARIZ@Kansas StateKSU	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
BYUBYU@WyomingWYO	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@TulsaTLSA	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@Texas TechTTU	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
Air ForceAF@BaylorBAY	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
CincinnatiCIN@Miami (OH)M-OH	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
UtahUTAH@Utah StateUSU	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@Colorado StateCSU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
UNLVUNLV@KansasKU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
RiceRICE@HoustonHOU	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@PittsburghPITT	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Any 1 loss

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

44.7%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

35.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

16.4%

0.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.4%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

41.2%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

34.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.7%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com