Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:79% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:21% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:65% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:27% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:68% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:20% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.3% | 97.3% |
| 6-2 | 7.1% | 45.0% |
| 5-3 | 20.0% | 1.8% |
| 4-4 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 11.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0% (+0.1%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.2% (+0.3%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.0% (+0.1%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.1%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (-0.1%) | 5.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.0% (+0.1%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.6% (+0.7%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.2% (+0.3%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.0%) | 4.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.0% (+0.1%) | 4.9% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Bethune-Cookman
Illinois
Mississippi State
Kent State
ColgateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western MichiganMississippi StateCCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 41.4%
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.7%
0.7%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.5%
<0.1%
98.2%
0.2%
97.0%
0.2%
96.7%
0.1%
88.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.6%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.4%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.7%
0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.8%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.3%
0.2%55.1%
0.2%54.5%
0.2%52.6%
0.3%52.0%
0.2%51.7%
<0.1%49.5%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%44.6%
0.1%43.6%
<0.1%40.2%
0.7%33.3%
<0.1%29.9%
0.5%27.0%
0.5%Any 3 losses
14.3%
11.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.7%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.2%
0.1%46.2%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
0.4%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.0%
0.2%36.7%
<0.1%34.3%
0.1%29.6%
<0.1%27.8%
0.2%25.2%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.4%
0.4%3.1%
0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.7%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
1.0%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
1.9%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08