Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:54% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:72% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:73% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:49% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 20.7% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 31.4% | 63.1% |
| 5-3 | 25.8% | 4.8% |
| 4-4 | 12.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 47.2% (-0.1%) | 47.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.8%) | 47.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 47.1% (-0.2%) | 47.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 47.0% (-0.3%) | 47.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.4% (+0.1%) | 47.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 47.1% (-0.2%) | 47.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.5% (+0.2%) | 47.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 47.9% (+0.6%) | 47.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 47.1% (-0.2%) | 47.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.9% (-0.4%) | 47.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Colgate
Kent State
Morgan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloToledo
Jacksonville State
IllinoisCCG: 48.4% • Scenario: 20.4%
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
99.7%
10.7%
100.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.3%
99.9%
0.9%
99.8%
1.0%99.6%
0.8%
99.6%
0.3%
99.6%
2.3%
99.5%
1.3%
99.4%
1.3%Any 2 losses
80.4%
22.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.7%
0.7%99.7%
0.7%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
1.1%99.6%
0.2%99.6%
0.9%99.6%
0.9%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
2.0%99.4%
0.5%99.3%
0.4%99.0%
1.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.6%
0.1%86.5%
0.1%84.2%
0.3%82.7%
0.3%81.1%
<0.1%80.3%
0.1%79.4%
0.1%79.1%
<0.1%76.2%
0.1%75.9%
0.5%74.4%
0.4%73.7%
0.3%73.2%
0.4%73.0%
0.9%72.7%
0.9%69.6%
0.4%69.2%
0.5%69.1%
0.1%67.9%
0.1%64.7%
0.5%52.2%
0.6%52.1%
1.3%51.7%
0.6%51.3%
1.3%50.5%
1.1%47.8%
0.7%Any 3 losses
45.6%
28.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.8%99.5%
0.4%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
0.4%90.0%
<0.1%89.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
<0.1%87.3%
0.2%84.4%
0.1%84.0%
0.1%82.0%
<0.1%80.2%
0.1%80.0%
0.1%79.3%
0.2%79.1%
<0.1%79.1%
0.3%78.8%
<0.1%78.8%
0.2%77.5%
0.1%77.3%
0.8%76.2%
0.3%75.4%
0.1%75.3%
0.1%74.4%
0.4%74.3%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.6%
0.4%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%72.8%
0.3%72.3%
0.4%72.0%
0.4%71.9%
0.3%71.8%
0.7%71.7%
0.3%71.1%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
0.2%67.8%
0.2%67.8%
0.2%67.3%
0.4%60.9%
<0.1%57.3%
0.4%53.6%
0.9%52.4%
0.3%51.7%
0.5%51.6%
1.1%49.5%
0.5%48.8%
1.2%48.1%
0.6%47.3%
0.3%45.9%
0.2%45.8%
0.5%45.6%
0.6%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%6.8%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
0.4%5.6%
0.1%5.3%
0.4%5.2%
0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.5%4.5%
0.5%4.4%
0.3%4.4%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.5%3.6%
0.2%3.4%
0.5%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
0.7%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.6%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
0.8%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
19.3%
16.3%100.0%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.8%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.6%
0.1%73.7%
0.2%73.0%
0.2%72.8%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%70.8%
0.3%67.8%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.2%65.8%
<0.1%64.7%
0.3%55.8%
0.4%53.1%
0.4%50.2%
0.3%49.8%
0.2%47.3%
0.2%45.3%
0.5%42.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%14.0%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
0.3%9.3%
0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.3%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
0.1%5.4%
0.4%5.3%
0.3%5.1%
0.2%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.4%3.5%
0.4%3.3%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.6%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.5%1.8%
0.5%1.8%
0.5%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08