IllinoisFighting Illini

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsEastern IllinoisEIU	W45-0
2	9/07	vsKansasKU	W23-17
3	9/14	vsCentral MichiganCMU	Win prob:90%
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:32%
5	9/28	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:10%
7	10/12	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:61%
8	10/19	vsMichiganMICH	Win prob:11%
9	10/26	@OregonORE	Win prob:7%
10	11/02	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:61%
12	11/16	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:70%
13	11/23	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:43%
14	11/30	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:50%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0%	100.0%
8-1	0.1%	87.5%
7-2	0.7%	17.9%
6-3	4.5%	0.2%
5-4	15.3%	0%
4-5	27.8%	0%
3-6	28.6%	0%
2-7	17.1%	0%
1-8	5.3%	0%
0-9	0.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

52.6%

15.8%

15.8%

10.5%

5.3%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Notre DameND@PurduePUR	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.1%)
AlabamaALA@WisconsinWIS	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@MichiganMICH	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Northern IowaUNI@NebraskaNEB	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Washington StateWSU@WashingtonWASH	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
TroyTROY@IowaIOWA	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
OregonORE@Oregon StateORST	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Central MichiganCMU@IllinoisILL	0.1% (-0.1%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@MinnesotaMINN	0.1% (-0.1%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Prairie View A&MPV@Michigan StateMSU	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Eastern IllinoisEIU@NorthwesternNU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
IndianaIU@UCLAUCLA	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
MarylandMD@VirginiaUVA	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

87.4%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

90.0%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

18.9%

0.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

41.2%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

35.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.8%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

26.7%

<0.1%

23.8%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

10.7%

0.2%

9.7%

0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

5.9%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

3.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com