Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:91% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:96% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:62% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:97% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:86% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.6% | 99.1% |
| 7-1 | 17.4% | 48.9% |
| 6-2 | 34.3% | 2.2% |
| 5-3 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.7% (-0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.8% (+0.0%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (-0.7%) | 13.0% (+1.2%) | |
| 12.2% (+0.4%) | 11.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.8% (-0.0%) | 12.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.2%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.9% (+0.2%) | 11.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 12.0% (+0.2%) | 11.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.9% (+0.1%) | 11.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.8% (+0.0%) | 11.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.7% (-0.1%) | 11.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.0% (+1.2%) | 11.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.5% (-0.3%) | 15.7% (+3.9%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.1%
2.3%Any 1 loss
49.7%
15.7%
100.0%
0.2%
98.6%
<0.1%
72.6%
0.4%
69.2%
1.1%
62.8%
<0.1%
59.5%
0.2%
53.7%
1.4%
50.9%
0.4%
48.8%
2.0%
44.4%
9.8%Any 2 losses
6.8%
23.4%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%70.8%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%56.7%
0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
0.3%44.8%
0.9%41.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.4%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
0.2%9.1%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.8%
0.8%7.5%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%5.8%
0.3%4.9%
0.3%4.8%
1.6%3.2%
1.8%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
5.2%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
0.9%2.0%
1.0%1.8%
6.3%1.8%
0.4%1.6%
1.3%1.5%
0.2%Any 3 losses
4.5%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.5%2.6%
0.6%1.9%
0.2%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08