TexasLonghorns

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

47.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsColorado StateCSU	W52-0
2	9/07	@MichiganMICH	W31-12
3	9/14	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:97%
4	9/21	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:99%
5	9/28	vsMississippi StateMSST	Win prob:97%
7	10/12	vsOklahomaOU(N)	Win prob:70%
8	10/19	vsGeorgiaUGA	Win prob:45%
9	10/26	@VanderbiltVAN	Win prob:97%
11	11/09	vsFloridaFLA	Win prob:96%
12	11/16	@ArkansasARK	Win prob:94%
13	11/23	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:94%
14	11/30	@Texas A&MTA&M	Win prob:83%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	21.2%	99.8%
7-1	44.1%	58.2%
6-2	26.9%	3.2%
5-3	6.9%	0%
4-4	0.9%	0%
3-5	0.1%	0%
2-6	0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

44.1%

32.5%

8.1%

7.8%

7.5%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulaneTULN@OklahomaOU	48.4% (+0.8%)	47.5% (-0.1%)
AlabamaALA@WisconsinWIS	47.7% (+0.0%)	47.6% (-0.1%)
LSULSU@South CarolinaSC	46.7% (-1.0%)	49.5% (+1.8%)
New MexicoUNM@AuburnAUB	47.8% (+0.1%)	47.7% (-0.0%)
Ole MissMISS@Wake ForestWAKE	47.7% (+0.1%)	47.4% (-0.3%)
UTSAUTSA@TexasTEX	48.3% (+0.7%)	47.6% (-0.0%)
Texas A&MTA&M@FloridaFLA	47.4% (-0.3%)	48.2% (+0.5%)
Boston CollegeBC@MissouriMIZ	48.2% (+0.5%)	47.6% (-0.1%)
ToledoTOL@Mississippi StateMSST	47.6% (-0.1%)	47.7% (+0.1%)
UABUAB@ArkansasARK	47.8% (+0.1%)	47.6% (-0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@Georgia StateGAST	47.4% (-0.3%)	47.8% (+0.1%)
Kent StateKENT@TennesseeTENN	45.0% (-2.7%)	47.7% (+0.0%)
GeorgiaUGA@KentuckyUK	47.1% (-0.5%)	55.3% (+7.6%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.8%

20.3%

Any 1 loss

59.1%

43.1%

100.0%

0.2%

99.7%

0.7%

80.9%

0.6%

80.3%

1.3%

79.4%

1.2%

77.4%

0.7%

76.8%

0.8%

74.7%

4.4%

69.8%

8.6%

47.2%

24.6%

Any 2 losses

7.0%

27.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

84.3%

<0.1%

79.3%

<0.1%

78.0%

<0.1%

77.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

74.1%

0.2%

73.6%

<0.1%

72.2%

0.3%

70.0%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

48.4%

0.9%

42.9%

<0.1%

41.4%

0.3%

23.3%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

17.3%

0.3%

15.8%

<0.1%

14.8%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.7%

<0.1%

11.1%

0.1%

11.0%

0.2%

9.4%

<0.1%

8.8%

0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.9%

0.7%

5.6%

0.2%

5.5%

0.6%

5.1%

1.0%

5.0%

1.5%

4.7%

1.5%

4.4%

1.8%

4.3%

0.5%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.1%

0.5%

3.4%

5.1%

2.9%

0.3%

2.4%

0.2%

2.2%

0.4%

0.7%

10.3%

Any 3 losses

4.6%

1.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.0%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.8%

0.2%

5.1%

<0.1%

4.6%

<0.1%

4.6%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%

0.4%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com