Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-15
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 2-0 | 3-0 | 85.8% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 2-1 | 30.2% | |
| T3 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 26.1% | |
| T3 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-3 | 24.8% | |
| T3 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 0-3 | 17.3% | |
| T3 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5.8% | |
| T3 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5.2% | |
| T3 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2.1% | |
| T3 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-1 | 0-3 | 1.9% | |
| T3 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0.9% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 85.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 85.8% (+0.0%) | 85.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 85.5% (-0.2%) | 85.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 85.6% (-0.2%) | 85.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 86.4% (+0.6%) | 85.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.8% (+0.0%) | 85.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.5% (-0.3%) | 85.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 87.3% (+1.5%) | 85.2% (-0.6%) | |
| 85.6% (-0.2%) | 85.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle Tennessee
Southern Miss
Colorado State
MonmouthWestern Kentucky
East CarolinaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 87.3% • Scenario: 29.6%
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.8% | 80.5% | 16.3% | 0.2% | 85.8% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.4% | 72.5% | 14.0% | 0.1% | 30.2% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 99.5% | 75.6% | 14.7% | <0.1% | 26.1% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 99.3% | 74.3% | 14.6% | <0.1% | 24.8% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.0% | 71.9% | 12.9% | <0.1% | 17.3% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 97.7% | 64.9% | 11.5% | <0.1% | 5.8% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 99.0% | 65.3% | 10.4% | <0.1% | 5.2% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 96.7% | 69.1% | 11.5% | <0.1% | 2.1% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 98.8% | 68.7% | 12.9% | <0.1% | 1.9% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 100% | 70.0% | 11.4% | <0.1% | 0.9% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(2-0) | 24.0% | 39.5% | 26.1% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.8 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 1.0% | 8.1% | 23.0% | 32.1% | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 0.2% | - | 4.9 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.5% | 18.9% | 28.8% | 25.6% | 13.7% | 4.5% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 0.9% | 6.2% | 18.3% | 27.9% | 25.8% | 14.8% | 5.1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.7% | 13.7% | 26.7% | 28.8% | 18.7% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 5.0% | 16.8% | 28.7% | 28.2% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 3.5 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 13.7% | 25.6% | 28.5% | 18.9% | 7.0% | 1.1% | 3.3 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 7.1% | 18.9% | 29.2% | 26.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 2.8 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | 18.7% | 29.8% | 27.6% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 2.7 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 13.7% | 27.0% | 31.2% | 18.7% | 4.8% | 2.4 |
Data from 2024-09-15