Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:56% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.2% | 99.3% |
| 6-2 | 18.3% | 74.3% |
| 5-3 | 27.9% | 14.6% |
| 4-4 | 25.8% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 24.7% (-0.1%) | 25.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 24.9% (+0.1%) | 24.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.0% (+0.3%) | 24.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 24.3% (-0.4%) | 24.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 24.7% (-0.0%) | 24.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 24.8% (+0.1%) | 24.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.7%) | 24.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 25.1% (+0.4%) | 24.6% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 25.7% • Scenario: 23.3%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
99.3%
5.7%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.7%
0.4%99.6%
0.5%99.1%
1.1%99.0%
1.8%98.7%
0.6%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15