Duke

DukeBlue Devils

3-0 T5th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

7.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

DukeSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
vsElonELON
W26-3
29/06
vsNorthwesternNU(N)
W26-20
39/14
vsUConnCONN
W26-21
49/21
@MTSUMTSU
Win prob:86%
59/28
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
Win prob:61%
610/05
@Georgia TechGT
Win prob:48%
810/18
vsFlorida StFSU
Win prob:57%
910/26
vsSMUSMU
Win prob:50%
1011/02
@Miami FLMIA
Win prob:20%
1111/09
@NC StateNCSU
Win prob:53%
1311/23
vsVirginia TechVT
Win prob:53%
1411/30
@Wake ForestWAKE
Win prob:72%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.3%
100.0%
7-1
3.3%
89.8%
6-2
12.3%
31.8%
5-3
24.0%
0.4%
4-4
28.2%
0%
3-5
20.6%
0%
2-6
8.9%
0%
1-7
2.1%
0%
0-8
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Duke CCG Opponents

if Duke makes the CCG

MiamiMiami FL
32.8%
ClemsonClemson
28.8%
LouisvilleLouisville
19.6%
SMUSMU
10.3%
Virginia TechVirginia Tech
8.4%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeThis Week's Impact

Game
DukeCCG OddsAway
DukeCCG OddsHome
James MadisonJMU@North CarolinaUNC
7.2%
(-0.1%)		7.4%
(+0.1%)
DukeDUKE@MTSUMTSU
7.3%
(+0.0%)		7.2%
(-0.1%)
VirginiaUVA@Coastal CarCCU
7.3%
(+0.1%)		7.3%
(-0.0%)
TCUTCU@SMUSMU
7.4%
(+0.1%)		7.2%
(-0.1%)
NC StateNCSU@ClemsonCLEM
9.4%
(+2.2%)		6.9%
(-0.4%)
CaliforniaCAL@Florida StFSU
6.7%
(-0.5%)		7.5%
(+0.3%)
Youngstown StateYSU@PittsburghPITT
7.4%
(+0.1%)		7.3%
(-0.0%)
Georgia TechGT@LouisvilleLOU
8.7%
(+1.5%)		6.8%
(-0.5%)
RutgersRUTG@Virginia TechVT
7.3%
(+0.0%)		7.3%
(-0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@Boston CollegeBC
7.4%
(+0.1%)		7.2%
(-0.1%)
StanfordSTAN@SyracuseSYR
7.1%
(-0.1%)		7.3%
(+0.1%)
Miami FLMIA@South FloridaUSF
7.2%
(-0.0%)		7.4%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Duke CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%
Any 1 loss
90.0%
2.9%
MTSU
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia Tech
93.4%
0.4%
Wake Forest
92.3%
0.1%
North Carolina
91.3%
0.2%
Virginia Tech
91.2%
0.3%
SMU
90.6%
0.3%
NC State
90.6%
0.3%
Florida St
88.7%
0.2%
Miami FL
88.0%
1.1%
Any 2 losses
34.3%
11.0%
Georgia TechMTSU
96.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNC State
94.6%
<0.1%
MTSUWake Forest
94.4%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth Carolina
93.3%
<0.1%
MTSUSMU
86.8%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FL
86.7%
0.2%
MTSUVirginia Tech
86.5%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSU
86.1%
<0.1%
Georgia TechWake Forest
53.7%
0.1%
NC StateWake Forest
53.6%
0.1%
Florida StWake Forest
52.4%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia Tech
49.2%
0.2%
North CarolinaWake Forest
47.4%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNC State
45.3%
0.3%
Georgia TechNorth Carolina
44.4%
0.2%
Virginia TechWake Forest
44.1%
<0.1%
Florida StNC State
42.6%
0.2%
Florida StVirginia Tech
41.2%
0.2%
NC StateNorth Carolina
39.2%
0.2%
SMUWake Forest
38.9%
0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
37.9%
0.2%
Florida StNorth Carolina
37.8%
0.1%
Georgia TechSMU
37.4%
0.3%
North CarolinaSMU
37.0%
0.2%
NC StateVirginia Tech
35.9%
0.2%
NC StateSMU
34.6%
0.3%
Miami FLWake Forest
31.8%
0.5%
Georgia TechVirginia Tech
31.2%
0.3%
Miami FLNC State
30.8%
1.0%
Georgia TechMiami FL
30.0%
1.2%
Florida StSMU
29.0%
0.3%
Miami FLNorth Carolina
28.9%
0.7%
Florida StMiami FL
28.1%
0.9%
SMUVirginia Tech
28.0%
0.3%
Miami FLVirginia Tech
22.5%
1.0%
Miami FLSMU
21.5%
1.2%
Any 3 losses
12.0%
4.8%
MTSUNC StateWake Forest
62.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateNorth Carolina
61.1%
<0.1%
MTSUVirginia TechWake Forest
60.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUWake Forest
52.2%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNC State
52.2%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNorth Carolina
46.2%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUWake Forest
44.4%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSU
37.3%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateSMU
36.8%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC State
36.7%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaSMU
36.6%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth Carolina
35.1%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FL
34.2%
0.2%
Georgia TechMTSUSMU
34.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaWake Forest
33.3%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNC State
32.7%
0.2%
Florida StMTSUVirginia Tech
32.1%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNorth Carolina
31.8%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FL
31.4%
0.2%
MTSUMiami FLWake Forest
27.9%
<0.1%
MTSUSMUVirginia Tech
26.8%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUVirginia Tech
25.5%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUSMU
25.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateVirginia Tech
24.4%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
22.2%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLVirginia Tech
21.3%
0.2%
MTSUMiami FLSMU
20.9%
0.2%
MTSUSMUWake Forest
12.5%
<0.1%
Florida StNC StateWake Forest
5.4%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia TechWake Forest
3.2%
<0.1%
Florida StNC StateSMU
2.8%
0.2%
Florida StNC StateVirginia Tech
1.8%
0.2%
North CarolinaSMUWake Forest
1.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.4%
0.3%
Georgia TechSMUVirginia Tech
1.3%
0.3%
Florida StNorth CarolinaSMU
1.3%
0.2%
Georgia TechNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.1%
<0.1%
Miami FLSMUWake Forest
1.1%
0.5%
Georgia TechMiami FLWake Forest
0.9%
0.4%
Georgia TechVirginia TechWake Forest
0.9%
0.1%
Florida StNC StateNorth Carolina
0.9%
0.1%
NC StateSMUWake Forest
0.9%
0.1%
NC StateNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
0.8%
0.1%
Miami FLVirginia TechWake Forest
0.5%
0.4%
Any 4 losses
1.7%
0.9%
Georgia TechMTSUNC StateWake Forest
6.7%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNorth CarolinaWake Forest
6.7%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSUWake Forest
6.7%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC StateWake Forest
6.3%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNorth CarolinaWake Forest
5.0%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSUVirginia Tech
3.2%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLSMUWake Forest
2.8%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNorth CarolinaSMU
2.6%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth CarolinaWake Forest
2.3%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FLWake Forest
1.9%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNC StateWake Forest
1.8%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.0%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FLNC State
1.0%
0.2%
MTSUMiami FLNC StateVirginia Tech
0.8%
0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSUMiami FL
0.7%
0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com