LibertyFlames

3-0 T1st (2-0) in CUSA

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

85.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsCampbellCAM	W41-24
2	9/07	@New Mexico StateNMSU	W30-24
3	9/14	vsUTEPUTEP	W28-10
4	9/21	vsEast CarolinaECU	Win prob:78%
5	9/28	@App StateAPP	Win prob:61%
7	10/08	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:91%
9	10/23	@Kennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:69%
10	10/30	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:82%
11	11/09	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:86%
12	11/16	@MassachusettsMASS	Win prob:94%
13	11/23	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	Win prob:80%
14	11/29	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:68%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	24.0%	100.0%
7-1	39.5%	99.8%
6-2	26.1%	80.5%
5-3	8.8%	16.3%
4-4	1.5%	0.2%
3-5	0.1%	0%
2-6	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

29.6%

24.6%

23.1%

16.5%

6.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
DukeDUKE@Middle TennesseeMTSU	85.8% (+0.0%)	85.8% (+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@Jacksonville StateJXST	85.5% (-0.2%)	85.9% (+0.1%)
UTEPUTEP@Colorado StateCSU	85.6% (-0.2%)	85.9% (+0.1%)
MonmouthMONM@Florida InternationalFIU	86.4% (+0.6%)	85.7% (-0.1%)
ToledoTOL@Western KentuckyWKU	85.8% (+0.0%)	85.7% (-0.1%)
East CarolinaECU@LibertyLIB	85.5% (-0.3%)	85.9% (+0.1%)
New Mexico StateNMSU@Sam HoustonSHSU	87.3% (+1.5%)	85.2% (-0.6%)
TulsaTLSA@Louisiana TechLT	85.6% (-0.2%)	85.9% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Middle Tennessee

Southern Miss

Colorado State

Monmouth

Western Kentucky

East Carolina

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

New Mexico State

CCG: 87.3% • Scenario: 29.6%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

10.8%

Any 1 loss

99.8%

28.3%

100.0%

0.8%

100.0%

6.8%

100.0%

3.0%

100.0%

1.8%

99.8%

1.1%

99.8%

5.2%

99.8%

2.4%

99.6%

4.7%

99.4%

2.7%

Any 2 losses

92.5%

31.5%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

1.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

1.8%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.9%

1.3%

99.8%

3.0%

99.8%

1.5%

99.7%

0.7%

99.7%

3.3%

99.6%

1.6%

99.5%

1.3%

99.5%

0.2%

99.5%

0.4%

97.9%

0.2%

92.8%

0.8%

92.7%

0.8%

92.5%

0.4%

91.5%

0.2%

90.7%

0.6%

90.4%

0.5%

89.3%

0.5%

88.6%

0.3%

76.4%

1.1%

76.0%

2.3%

75.0%

1.1%

72.1%

0.5%

70.8%

1.2%

70.4%

1.3%

Any 3 losses

72.1%

19.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.8%

0.5%

99.8%

0.9%

99.8%

0.9%

99.8%

0.4%

99.5%

0.2%

99.1%

0.1%

98.9%

<0.1%

98.4%

<0.1%

95.4%

0.2%

95.1%

<0.1%

94.4%

<0.1%

94.4%

0.1%

94.3%

<0.1%

93.5%

<0.1%

93.5%

0.3%

93.1%

0.1%

92.8%

0.1%

92.3%

<0.1%

92.1%

0.5%

92.1%

<0.1%

91.9%

0.1%

91.5%

0.5%

91.3%

0.1%

91.0%

0.3%

90.6%

<0.1%

90.5%

<0.1%

90.5%

<0.1%

90.3%

0.3%

90.2%

0.2%

89.2%

0.3%

88.1%

0.1%

88.0%

0.2%

81.3%

0.2%

79.4%

0.3%

79.2%

<0.1%

78.9%

0.3%

77.1%

0.7%

77.1%

1.4%

76.8%

0.6%

76.5%

<0.1%

76.4%

0.7%

75.4%

<0.1%

75.1%

0.2%

73.2%

0.4%

71.2%

0.8%

69.7%

0.1%

69.4%

0.8%

69.1%

0.3%

68.7%

0.3%

66.3%

<0.1%

46.4%

<0.1%

42.1%

<0.1%

35.9%

<0.1%

34.4%

<0.1%

34.3%

<0.1%

26.4%

<0.1%

26.0%

0.1%

23.0%

0.2%

22.9%

0.1%

20.0%

0.4%

19.9%

0.2%

19.2%

0.1%

19.0%

0.2%

18.2%

0.2%

18.2%

0.1%

18.1%

0.2%

15.6%

0.1%

9.2%

0.5%

7.8%

0.3%

7.7%

0.3%

7.6%

0.6%

Any 4 losses

44.0%

7.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.3%

<0.1%

96.5%

<0.1%

95.8%

<0.1%

95.7%

<0.1%

95.5%

<0.1%

95.0%

<0.1%

93.2%

<0.1%

93.0%

0.1%

91.7%

<0.1%

90.9%

<0.1%

89.7%

0.1%

89.1%

<0.1%

89.0%

0.2%

87.6%

0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

86.7%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

84.0%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

81.7%

0.2%

81.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

79.6%

<0.1%

79.0%

<0.1%

77.3%

<0.1%

76.9%

<0.1%

75.9%

0.2%

73.9%

0.4%

72.9%

<0.1%

72.7%

<0.1%

72.7%

<0.1%

72.3%

0.2%

69.7%

0.1%

69.7%

0.2%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.8%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

57.7%

<0.1%

56.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

40.7%

<0.1%

38.3%

<0.1%

36.0%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

31.6%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.0%

<0.1%

25.9%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.6%

0.1%

23.4%

<0.1%

23.3%

<0.1%

23.2%

<0.1%

22.8%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

20.8%

0.2%

20.5%

0.1%

20.5%

<0.1%

20.2%

<0.1%

19.6%

0.1%

19.6%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.3%

0.1%

17.1%

0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.5%

<0.1%

15.4%

0.1%

14.8%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.0%

<0.1%

11.6%

<0.1%

11.4%

<0.1%

10.3%

0.1%

9.3%

0.3%

8.6%

0.2%

8.3%

0.1%

8.2%

0.4%

7.7%

0.2%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.1%

0.2%

4.0%

<0.1%

1.5%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com