Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.4% | 74.8% |
| 6-2 | 27.0% | 41.0% |
| 5-3 | 29.4% | 14.1% |
| 4-4 | 18.7% | 2.4% |
| 3-5 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 28.3% (-0.0%) | 28.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.3% (-0.0%) | 28.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.1% (-0.2%) | 28.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 28.3% (+0.0%) | 28.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.4% (+0.0%) | 28.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.0% (+0.7%) | 28.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 28.5% (+0.2%) | 28.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 25.9% (-2.4%) | 28.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.5% (+0.1%) | 28.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.3% (-0.0%) | 28.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
James Madison
Virginia
UL Monroe
MarshallCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Troy
Arkansas State
Texas
Ohio StateCCG: 29.2% • Scenario: 17.1%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
79.9%
6.6%
100.0%
1.2%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.4%
98.9%
0.2%98.5%
0.3%85.5%
0.4%
62.9%
1.3%59.8%
0.7%
42.9%
0.9%Any 2 losses
54.4%
17.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.3%
0.3%98.8%
<0.1%87.3%
0.2%86.3%
0.4%82.0%
0.2%81.3%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
0.5%65.6%
1.4%64.2%
1.0%62.5%
0.3%62.1%
0.6%58.7%
0.7%58.7%
0.4%57.4%
0.3%46.8%
0.3%45.7%
0.4%42.5%
1.0%37.8%
0.7%34.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%21.4%
0.2%15.9%
0.3%15.8%
<0.1%15.2%
0.1%12.1%
0.2%11.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.2%5.7%
0.4%4.4%
0.3%3.4%
0.8%1.7%
0.6%1.3%
1.0%Any 3 losses
36.2%
22.7%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.0%
0.2%88.2%
0.1%85.8%
0.2%85.1%
0.1%84.6%
0.1%82.4%
0.3%75.8%
<0.1%69.5%
0.2%69.2%
<0.1%68.3%
0.7%65.9%
0.5%65.8%
<0.1%64.9%
1.2%64.5%
<0.1%64.3%
0.2%64.1%
0.1%63.9%
0.4%63.7%
0.3%62.9%
0.4%59.9%
0.5%58.3%
0.2%57.9%
0.4%52.4%
<0.1%44.1%
0.3%44.1%
0.1%44.0%
0.4%44.0%
0.7%43.3%
<0.1%41.7%
0.4%41.3%
0.3%40.9%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%24.6%
0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.6%
0.2%21.1%
0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%19.4%
0.2%18.3%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.0%
0.2%16.4%
<0.1%14.8%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.1%13.1%
0.2%13.1%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.2%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.4%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.7%
0.3%8.6%
0.2%8.1%
0.5%6.0%
0.2%5.5%
0.3%5.2%
0.3%5.1%
0.2%4.8%
0.1%4.3%
0.9%3.9%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.5%
0.4%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.6%2.6%
0.8%2.3%
1.2%2.2%
0.6%2.0%
0.3%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.5%Any 4 losses
22.9%
15.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%84.7%
0.1%81.7%
0.1%70.2%
0.3%68.5%
0.2%68.0%
0.4%66.4%
0.5%65.0%
<0.1%63.9%
0.3%63.5%
0.1%62.2%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
0.1%47.4%
0.1%46.5%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%41.3%
0.2%35.7%
<0.1%35.6%
0.3%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.7%
0.1%21.4%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.3%
0.2%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.9%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.6%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.2%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.7%
0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.5%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.7%
0.4%4.6%
0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.0%
0.4%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.6%
0.5%2.4%
0.7%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.2%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.5%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.9%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15