Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-15
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 72.6% | |
| T1 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-0 | 1-2 | 30.2% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 2-0 | 28.3% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 2-1 | 18.9% | |
| T1 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 0-3 | 16.7% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 0-0 | 3-0 | 12.2% | |
| T1 |  App StateAPP | 0-0 | 2-1 | 6.4% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 2-1 | 5.4% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 2-1 | 2.6% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.2% | |
| T1 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2.1% | |
| T1 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1.8% | |
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.2% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 72.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 72.6% (+0.0%) | 72.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 73.1% (+0.5%) | 72.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 72.7% (+0.1%) | 72.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 72.6% (+0.0%) | 72.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 71.6% (-0.9%) | 72.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 72.1% (-0.5%) | 72.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 72.4% (-0.2%) | 72.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 74.5% (+1.9%) | 72.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 72.0% (-0.5%) | 72.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 73.3% (+0.7%) | 72.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida A&MUL MonroeGeorgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
James MadisonTroy
Iowa State
Jacksonville State
Ohio State
Ole MissCCG: 73.0% • Scenario: 35.0%
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 79.8% | 31.0% | 8.0% | 1.1% | - | 72.6% |
| South AlabamaUSA | 100% | 70.0% | 31.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | - | 30.2% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 74.8% | 41.0% | 14.1% | 2.4% | <0.1% | 28.3% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 65.6% | 23.8% | 5.9% | 0.9% | - | 18.9% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 67.2% | 28.5% | 8.5% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 16.7% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 56.2% | 29.1% | 11.1% | 1.8% | - | 12.2% |
| App StateAPP | 100% | 69.8% | 39.0% | 14.5% | 2.2% | - | 6.4% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 67.1% | 23.4% | 5.9% | 0.9% | - | 5.4% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 72.4% | 38.3% | 13.3% | 2.3% | - | 2.6% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 45.7% | 10.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% | - | 2.2% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 63.6% | 31.0% | 10.0% | 1.7% | - | 2.1% |
| Georgia StateGAST | 100% | 53.0% | 24.6% | 7.3% | 1.1% | - | 1.8% |
| UL MonroeULM | - | 85.7% | 47.4% | 15.4% | 3.4% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | 51.5% | 20.7% | 3.4% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 34.3% | 39.8% | 19.7% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-0) | 4.7% | 18.8% | 30.6% | 27.4% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5.6 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | 2.7% | 13.4% | 27.0% | 29.4% | 18.7% | 7.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.2 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | 2.2% | 12.5% | 27.2% | 30.6% | 19.0% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.2 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 1.4% | 8.7% | 22.9% | 30.6% | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0) | 0.5% | 5.3% | 17.4% | 28.7% | 27.2% | 15.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 9.4% | 22.2% | 30.1% | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 4.0 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 21.3% | 29.9% | 24.2% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| App StateAPP(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.2% | 6.1% | 17.0% | 27.8% | 27.2% | 15.4% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 9.9% | 22.7% | 30.0% | 23.2% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 3.0 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 8.8% | 20.6% | 29.4% | 24.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 2.9 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.6% | 20.8% | 29.6% | 24.9% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 2.9 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 5.5% | 18.2% | 34.2% | 31.9% | 9.2% | 1.8 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 10.9% | 28.1% | 37.7% | 20.5% | 1.4 |
Data from 2024-09-15