Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W40-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:95% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:85% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:68% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.6% | 98.8% |
| 7-1 | 15.4% | 51.3% |
| 6-2 | 31.6% | 1.3% |
| 5-3 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 15.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.1% (+0.2%) | 10.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.1%) | 10.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.9% (+0.1%) | 10.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.1% (-0.8%) | 12.0% (+1.1%) | |
| 11.0% (+0.1%) | 10.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.4%) | 10.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.7% (+0.9%) | 10.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.3%) | 10.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.9% (+0.0%) | 10.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.3%) | 10.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
UL Monroe
Arkansas
Georgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 12.0% • Scenario: 41.1%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.8%
2.4%Any 1 loss
51.7%
14.7%99.3%
0.1%
73.4%
1.2%
69.1%
0.5%66.6%
0.4%
65.4%
0.5%
62.1%
3.1%57.1%
2.1%
56.6%
0.1%
36.6%
6.6%Any 2 losses
3.4%
25.3%71.9%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%65.2%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%60.5%
0.1%48.3%
<0.1%39.0%
0.4%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
0.2%6.6%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%4.9%
0.6%4.5%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%3.7%
0.5%3.7%
0.6%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
1.5%2.2%
0.4%2.0%
0.4%1.7%
1.2%1.5%
3.3%1.5%
1.0%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
1.1%1.4%
1.3%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
8.0%0.5%
2.5%Any 3 losses
1.2%
0.8%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15