Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-30 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-27 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:19% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:36% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:13% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:6% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:25% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:22% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:1% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:11% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 85.7% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 47.8% |
| 5-3 | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| 4-4 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 39.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 22.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
56.9%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15