TexasLonghorns

3-0 T5th (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

58.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsColorado StateCSU	W52-0
2	9/07	@MichiganMICH	W31-12
3	9/14	vsUTSAUTSA	W56-7
4	9/21	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:99%
5	9/28	vsMississippi StateMSST	Win prob:99%
7	10/12	vsOklahomaOU(N)	Win prob:78%
8	10/19	vsGeorgiaUGA	Win prob:61%
9	10/26	@VanderbiltVAN	Win prob:98%
11	11/09	vsFloridaFLA	Win prob:98%
12	11/16	@ArkansasARK	Win prob:96%
13	11/23	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:96%
14	11/30	@Texas A&MTA&M	Win prob:87%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	35.7%	99.3%
7-1	43.5%	51.2%
6-2	17.4%	1.5%
5-3	3.1%	0%
4-4	0.2%	0%
3-5	0.0%	0%
2-6	0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

37.1%

27.0%

19.9%

8.3%

7.8%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
AkronAKR@South CarolinaSC	57.9% (-0.1%)	58.0% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@TexasTEX	55.8% (-2.3%)	58.0% (+0.0%)
ArkansasARK@AuburnAUB	58.2% (+0.2%)	57.9% (-0.1%)
TennesseeTENN@OklahomaOU	55.4% (-2.6%)	61.7% (+3.7%)
OhioOHIO@KentuckyUK	58.2% (+0.2%)	57.9% (-0.1%)
UCLAUCLA@LSULSU	57.1% (-0.9%)	58.1% (+0.1%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@Ole MissMISS	56.2% (-1.8%)	58.1% (+0.1%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Texas A&MTA&M	57.9% (-0.1%)	58.0% (+0.0%)
FloridaFLA@Mississippi StateMSST	58.3% (+0.3%)	57.6% (-0.4%)
VanderbiltVAN@MissouriMIZ	60.8% (+2.8%)	57.9% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Akron

UL Monroe

Arkansas

Georgia Southern

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Oklahoma

CCG: 61.7% • Scenario: 41.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.3%

35.4%

Any 1 loss

51.6%

43.4%

99.4%

0.3%

73.8%

0.6%

73.1%

1.5%

72.9%

1.6%

72.1%

0.9%

72.0%

0.5%

65.7%

5.4%

61.2%

9.9%

38.5%

22.7%

Any 2 losses

4.1%

11.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

82.3%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

57.7%

0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

47.7%

<0.1%

41.1%

0.3%

16.7%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.2%

0.2%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.5%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

6.1%

<0.1%

5.4%

0.2%

4.7%

0.1%

3.8%

0.1%

3.1%

0.4%

2.5%

1.1%

2.3%

1.6%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.3%

0.6%

2.3%

0.2%

2.3%

0.2%

2.2%

0.4%

1.7%

0.4%

1.5%

0.3%

1.3%

0.1%

1.1%

0.9%

3.6%

Any 3 losses

7.9%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com