Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:43% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:69% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 27.5% | 85.3% |
| 6-2 | 33.3% | 21.0% |
| 5-3 | 21.1% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 7.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.3% (+0.1%) | 39.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 39.6% (+0.4%) | 38.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 39.1% (-0.1%) | 39.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.9% (-0.3%) | 39.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 39.2% (+0.0%) | 39.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 39.7% (+0.5%) | 39.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 39.6% (+0.4%) | 39.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 46.0% (+6.8%) | 37.7% (-1.5%) | |
| 38.6% (-0.5%) | 40.6% (+1.4%) | |
| 38.9% (-0.2%) | 39.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.1% (-0.0%) | 39.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.8%Any 1 loss
89.8%
16.7%
100.0%
5.0%
93.0%
0.6%
92.0%
1.0%
91.8%
0.5%
91.6%
0.2%
89.9%
1.4%
89.8%
2.1%
86.3%
1.7%
78.0%
4.3%Any 2 losses
55.0%
29.8%92.5%
0.6%91.8%
0.2%91.5%
0.7%91.5%
1.3%89.5%
2.9%89.3%
1.9%87.2%
2.3%77.7%
5.7%53.8%
0.1%46.0%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%35.9%
0.1%33.1%
0.1%32.7%
<0.1%31.4%
0.2%31.4%
0.2%31.2%
0.3%29.0%
0.4%29.0%
0.4%27.8%
0.5%27.3%
0.3%25.7%
<0.1%25.4%
0.8%24.6%
0.6%23.5%
0.2%23.4%
0.2%23.2%
0.3%23.1%
1.0%22.4%
0.7%21.4%
0.5%20.0%
<0.1%18.1%
1.6%16.9%
2.5%16.3%
1.0%12.8%
1.8%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15