Troy

TroyTrojans

0-3 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

16.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

TroySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/31
vsNevadaNEV
L26-28
29/07
@MemphisMEM
L17-38
39/14
@IowaIOWA
L21-38
49/21
vsFlorida A&MFAMU
Win prob:90%
59/28
vsULMULM
Win prob:88%
610/03
vsTexas StTXST
Win prob:57%
810/15
@South AlabamaUSA
Win prob:36%
910/26
@Arkansas StARST
Win prob:58%
1011/02
vsCoastal CarCCU
Win prob:60%
1211/16
@Ga SouthernGASO
Win prob:63%
1311/23
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:39%
1411/30
vsSouthern MissUSM
Win prob:91%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
1.4%
100.0%
7-1
8.7%
67.2%
6-2
22.9%
28.5%
5-3
30.6%
8.5%
4-4
23.3%
1.3%
3-5
10.3%
0.0%
2-6
2.5%
0%
1-7
0.3%
0%
0-8
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Troy CCG Opponents

if Troy makes the CCG

James MadisonJames Madison
75.7%
Coastal CarolinaCoastal Car
13.2%
App StateAppalachian St
6.1%
Georgia SouthernGa Southern
2.7%
MarshallMarshall
2.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyThis Week's Impact

Game
TroyCCG OddsAway
TroyCCG OddsHome
James MadisonJMU@North CarolinaUNC
16.7%
(+0.1%)		16.5%
(-0.2%)
VirginiaUVA@Coastal CarCCU
16.6%
(-0.1%)		16.7%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@LouisianaUL
16.8%
(+0.1%)		16.6%
(-0.1%)
South AlabamaUSA@Appalachian StAPP
16.6%
(-0.0%)		16.7%
(+0.0%)
Florida A&MFAMU@TroyTROY
17.0%
(+0.4%)		16.6%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@Iowa StISU
16.7%
(+0.0%)		16.7%
(+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@Jacksonville StJXST
16.3%
(-0.4%)		16.8%
(+0.1%)
ULMULM@TexasTEX
17.6%
(+1.0%)		16.7%
(-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Ohio StOSU
17.0%
(+0.3%)		16.7%
(-0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@MississippiMISS
16.5%
(-0.2%)		16.7%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Troy

VirginiaVirginiaArkansas StArkansas StateULMUL MonroeGa SouthernGeorgia Southern

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Troy

James MadisonJames MadisonIowa StIowa StateJacksonville StJacksonville State

CCG: 17.0% • Scenario: 41.9%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Troy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%
Any 1 loss
67.6%
8.0%
Coastal Car
100.0%
0.8%
Southern Miss
100.0%
0.1%
Ga Southern
100.0%
0.8%
Florida A&M
100.0%
0.1%
ULM
98.8%
0.2%
Arkansas St
88.1%
0.9%
Texas St
55.5%
0.9%
Louisiana
51.1%
1.9%
South Alabama
49.2%
2.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com