American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-22

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY2-03-051.1%
T1NavyNAVY2-03-030.8%
T3TulaneTULN0-02-245.8%
T3MemphisMEM0-13-129.7%
T3East CarolinaECU0-02-214.7%
T3South FloridaUSF0-02-29.7%
T3North TexasUNT0-03-19.7%
T3UT San AntonioUTSA0-02-26.2%
T3UABUAB0-01-21.0%
T3FL AtlanticFAU0-11-30.7%
T3TulsaTLSA0-02-20.4%
T3RiceRICE0-11-30.1%
T3CharlotteCLT0-01-3<0.1%
T3TempleTEM0-11-3<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

119.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
210.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
39.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
48.1%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
57.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
66.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
74.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
ECUEast Carolina
84.0%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
93.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
102.6%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
112.6%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
122.6%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
132.4%
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
142.3%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
151.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 51.1%
Game
ArmyCCG OddsAway
ArmyCCG OddsHome
WagnerWAG@FL AtlanticFAU
51.5%
(+0.5%)		51.0%
(-0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@North TexasUNT
52.5%
(+1.4%)		50.8%
(-0.3%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@East CarolinaECU
51.6%
(+0.5%)		50.8%
(-0.3%)
NavyNAVY@UABUAB
48.7%
(-2.3%)		56.0%
(+4.9%)
MTSUMTSU@MemphisMEM
50.0%
(-1.0%)		51.1%
(+0.1%)
ArmyARMY@TempleTEM
55.9%
(+4.8%)		23.2%
(-27.9%)
South FloridaUSF@TulaneTULN
52.7%
(+1.6%)		50.6%
(-0.5%)
CharlotteCLT@RiceRICE
50.1%
(-1.0%)		51.5%
(+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Army

WagnerWagnerTulsaTulsaUT San AntonioUTSAUABUABMTSUMiddle TennesseeSouth FloridaSouth Florida

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Army

ArmyArmy

CCG: 55.9% • Scenario: 85.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
ArmyARMY100%86.8%-46.3%-8.9%-0.1%-51.1%
TulaneTULN--100%-90.6%-23.4%-0.2%45.8%
NavyNAVY100%93.6%-54.9%-17.1%-0.2%-30.8%
MemphisMEM----95.3%-38.5%-0.9%29.7%
East CarolinaECU--100%-87.7%-19.1%-0.1%14.7%
South FloridaUSF--100%-88.0%-19.1%-0.1%9.7%
North TexasUNT--100%-98.7%-49.1%-1.0%9.7%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-89.7%-24.7%-0.2%6.2%
UABUAB--100%-97.7%-47.4%-1.0%1.0%
FL AtlanticFAU----75.2%-15.4%-<0.1%0.7%
TulsaTLSA--100%-93.0%-32.2%-0.4%0.4%
RiceRICE----100%-56.7%-2.0%0.1%
CharlotteCLT----100%-47.5%-0.8%<0.1%
TempleTEM----100%-51.7%-2.8%<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(2-0)9.6%28.1%0.0%32.9%0.0%20.6%0.0%7.2%0.0%1.4%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%--7.1
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%10.7%0.0%30.3%0.0%32.8%0.0%19.1%0.0%5.9%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.1%<0.1%0.0%6.2
NavyNAVY(2-0)1.8%10.4%0.0%25.2%0.0%31.6%0.0%21.7%0.0%7.8%0.0%1.4%0.0%<0.1%0.0%--6.1
MemphisMEM(0-1)---0.0%15.6%0.0%38.0%0.0%31.6%0.0%12.1%0.0%2.5%0.0%0.3%<0.1%0.0%5.5
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%1.5%0.0%9.8%0.0%24.2%0.0%30.4%0.0%22.1%0.0%9.5%0.0%2.3%0.3%<0.1%5.0
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%0.7%0.0%5.9%0.0%19.5%0.0%31.0%0.0%26.5%0.0%12.5%0.0%3.3%0.5%<0.1%4.7
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.3%0.0%3.2%0.0%12.4%0.0%25.8%0.0%29.8%0.0%19.6%0.0%7.3%1.4%0.1%4.2
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.3%0.0%3.0%0.0%12.6%0.0%25.6%0.0%29.6%0.0%19.8%0.0%7.5%1.5%0.1%4.2
FL AtlanticFAU(0-1)---0.0%0.3%0.0%3.0%0.0%12.1%0.0%26.2%0.0%31.1%0.0%20.0%6.5%0.8%3.3
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.5%0.0%7.8%0.0%21.6%0.0%32.6%0.0%25.2%9.7%1.4%2.9
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%4.5%0.0%14.1%0.0%27.0%0.0%30.0%18.5%4.8%2.4
RiceRICE(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%2.0%0.0%10.2%0.0%25.9%0.0%34.8%22.1%4.8%2.2
TempleTEM(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.7%0.0%15.1%0.0%33.0%34.1%13.5%1.6
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.6%0.0%3.6%0.0%13.9%0.0%30.2%34.9%16.8%1.5

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com