Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
51.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W24-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W37-14 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:85% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:84% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 9.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 28.1% | 86.8% |
| 7-2 | 32.9% | 46.3% |
| 6-3 | 20.6% | 8.9% |
| 5-4 | 7.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 51.5% (+0.5%) | 51.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 52.5% (+1.4%) | 50.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 51.6% (+0.5%) | 50.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 48.7% (-2.3%) | 56.0% (+4.9%) | |
| 50.0% (-1.0%) | 51.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 55.9% (+4.8%) | 23.2% (-27.9%) | |
| 52.7% (+1.6%) | 50.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 50.1% (-1.0%) | 51.5% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wagner
Tulsa
UTSA
UAB
Middle Tennessee
South FloridaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyCCG: 55.9% • Scenario: 85.2%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
98.1%
6.9%
100.0%
5.8%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.2%85.2%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%
82.3%
<0.1%
81.3%
0.3%
78.0%
0.1%77.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
86.8%
21.9%100.0%
3.4%100.0%
4.3%100.0%
0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.6%
1.4%85.2%
<0.1%84.7%
1.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%84.0%
1.0%82.9%
4.7%82.5%
2.0%82.4%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.5%
0.2%81.0%
<0.1%77.8%
2.5%77.5%
0.1%69.6%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
58.8%
30.7%100.0%
2.5%86.1%
0.1%86.1%
0.8%85.8%
0.7%85.8%
0.8%85.2%
1.1%84.9%
0.6%84.9%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%83.3%
0.8%83.0%
<0.1%82.8%
1.2%82.5%
2.6%82.3%
3.5%81.8%
1.5%77.5%
1.5%76.8%
1.9%75.0%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
0.3%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%19.2%
1.0%18.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.8%
0.3%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.6%
0.5%16.1%
0.1%15.8%
0.3%15.6%
0.4%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
0.8%14.5%
0.4%14.3%
0.8%13.4%
1.5%13.4%
0.6%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
0.5%12.4%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%10.0%
0.9%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
2.0%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
32.2%
19.6%83.4%
0.5%83.4%
0.6%82.3%
2.0%81.3%
0.9%81.2%
0.4%74.1%
1.1%28.4%
0.1%25.1%
0.2%21.0%
0.2%19.5%
0.3%19.5%
0.1%19.4%
0.1%18.5%
0.3%18.3%
0.8%18.3%
0.4%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
0.5%17.3%
0.2%17.0%
0.6%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
0.2%15.4%
0.7%15.2%
0.4%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
0.3%14.6%
0.3%14.1%
0.1%13.8%
0.5%13.0%
0.2%12.8%
0.8%12.7%
1.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
0.3%12.2%
0.5%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
1.1%9.3%
0.4%9.1%
1.5%9.1%
0.6%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%7.6%
0.5%3.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22