Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L14-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W69-7 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L7-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-37 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:38% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:9% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:27% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 56.7% |
| 5-3 | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 4-4 | 10.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 34.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 4.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wagner
UTSA
Navy
Middle Tennessee
Army
South Florida
CharlotteCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisRiceCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 66.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
52.5%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22