Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L3-51 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L11-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L20-28 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W45-29 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:15% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:23% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:50% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:6% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:39% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.0% | 51.7% |
| 5-3 | 0.5% | 2.8% |
| 4-4 | 3.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 34.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 13.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida Atlantic
Tulsa
East Carolina
UAB
Middle TennesseeTemple
Tulane
RiceCCG: 7.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida AtlanticTempleCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 13.3%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
30.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22