Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W49-21 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-11 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W56-44 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:4% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 10.4% | 93.6% |
| 7-2 | 25.2% | 54.9% |
| 6-3 | 31.6% | 17.1% |
| 5-4 | 21.7% | 0.2% |
| 4-5 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9% (+0.1%) | 30.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 33.0% (+2.2%) | 30.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 29.9% (-0.9%) | 31.3% (+0.5%) | |
| 38.2% (+7.5%) | 15.1% (-15.7%) | |
| 31.4% (+0.6%) | 30.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 29.7% (-1.1%) | 37.1% (+6.3%) | |
| 32.3% (+1.5%) | 30.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 30.9% (+0.1%) | 30.7% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wagner
Tulsa
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Temple
South FloridaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NavyCCG: 38.2% • Scenario: 67.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.6%
0.9%
100.0%
0.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%
93.8%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%
81.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
91.8%
5.7%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
0.3%96.6%
0.8%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
0.3%92.1%
0.8%91.4%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.0%
1.0%80.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
68.4%
16.6%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
0.5%97.5%
0.4%96.5%
1.1%96.5%
1.0%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
0.4%95.6%
<0.1%95.1%
0.4%94.4%
<0.1%93.1%
1.1%93.0%
0.9%89.4%
<0.1%86.5%
1.3%84.4%
1.4%80.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%42.4%
0.3%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
0.4%38.5%
<0.1%37.7%
0.3%37.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%32.0%
0.4%31.4%
<0.1%29.4%
0.8%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.0%
0.4%25.9%
0.1%25.7%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%24.3%
0.5%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
1.2%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%18.5%
1.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
44.4%
22.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.8%
0.7%95.6%
0.5%95.6%
1.4%92.1%
1.4%84.8%
1.9%60.0%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%52.2%
0.2%50.9%
<0.1%50.3%
0.2%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.4%
0.4%41.9%
0.5%41.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.7%
0.5%40.6%
0.4%40.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.4%39.1%
0.5%38.9%
0.5%35.9%
0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%30.2%
0.5%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.9%
1.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
0.7%27.7%
1.1%27.1%
0.2%26.8%
0.6%25.1%
0.2%23.2%
0.7%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.8%
1.5%19.6%
1.7%17.5%
1.4%16.7%
1.6%11.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22