Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
45.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:91% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:66% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:91% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 30.3% | 90.6% |
| 6-2 | 32.8% | 23.4% |
| 5-3 | 19.1% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 45.7% (-0.1%) | 45.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 44.9% (-0.9%) | 46.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 46.6% (+0.7%) | 45.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 44.5% (-1.3%) | 48.5% (+2.7%) | |
| 45.3% (-0.5%) | 45.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 44.6% (-1.2%) | 52.7% (+6.9%) | |
| 21.7% (-24.2%) | 52.7% (+6.9%) | |
| 45.8% (+0.0%) | 45.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wagner
North Texas
UTSA
UAB
Middle Tennessee
TempleCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 52.7% • Scenario: 77.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
10.7%Any 1 loss
90.6%
30.3%
97.0%
1.1%96.5%
0.7%96.3%
2.5%
95.2%
1.0%94.8%
5.6%
92.7%
3.2%
87.6%
8.8%
85.9%
7.3%Any 2 losses
23.4%
32.8%58.1%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%56.1%
0.2%54.1%
0.3%50.9%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%43.0%
1.3%42.0%
0.3%40.2%
0.5%40.1%
0.5%39.9%
0.3%39.2%
0.7%37.4%
0.2%35.4%
0.3%30.1%
1.6%29.1%
0.7%27.6%
0.9%27.4%
0.7%27.3%
1.7%27.2%
0.9%27.0%
0.4%26.5%
0.5%24.7%
2.0%19.7%
2.0%18.5%
3.7%18.1%
4.4%17.0%
2.5%11.6%
5.8%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22