Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W41-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L6-32 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L27-37 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:32% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:19% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:16% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:24% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:63% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 1.5% | 47.4% |
| 5-3 | 7.8% | 1.0% |
| 4-4 | 21.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 25.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.7%) | 2.5% (+1.6%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.2%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wagner
Tulsa
UTSAUAB
Middle Tennessee
Tulane
RiceCCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UABCCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 32.2%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.5%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.5%
<0.1%
93.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.2%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%36.1%
0.1%36.0%
0.1%32.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22