DukeBlue Devils

4-0 T9th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

8.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsElonELON	W26-3
2	9/06	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	W26-20
3	9/14	vsUConnCONN	W26-21
4	9/21	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W45-17
5	9/28	vsNorth CarolinaUNC	Win prob:71%
6	10/05	@Georgia TechGT	Win prob:53%
8	10/18	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:61%
9	10/26	vsSMUSMU	Win prob:47%
10	11/02	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:18%
11	11/09	@NC StateNCSU	Win prob:63%
13	11/23	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:59%
14	11/30	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:76%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.5%	100.0%
7-1	5.0%	82.7%
6-2	16.7%	20.1%
5-3	27.9%	0.1%
4-4	27.4%	0%
3-5	15.9%	0%
2-6	5.5%	0%
1-7	1.1%	0%
0-8	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

35.9%

31.6%

16.8%

11.4%

4.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisvilleLOU@Notre DameND	8.2% (+0.1%)	8.0% (-0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	8.1% (+0.0%)	8.1% (-0.0%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Boston CollegeBC	8.0% (-0.1%)	8.1% (+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@ClemsonCLEM	10.3% (+2.3%)	8.0% (-0.1%)
North CarolinaUNC@DukeDUKE	2.4% (-5.7%)	10.3% (+2.3%)
Holy CrossHC@SyracuseSYR	8.5% (+0.5%)	8.0% (-0.1%)
Florida StateFSU@SMUSMU	9.3% (+1.2%)	7.6% (-0.5%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@NC StateNCSU	8.2% (+0.2%)	7.9% (-0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@MiamiMIA	9.4% (+1.3%)	7.8% (-0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisville

Wake Forest

Stanford

North Carolina

Holy Cross

Florida State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Duke

CCG: 10.3% • Scenario: 71.5%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.5%

Any 1 loss

82.7%

5.0%

95.1%

0.2%

94.5%

0.5%

93.1%

0.3%

88.0%

0.4%

87.6%

0.1%

85.4%

0.4%

82.8%

0.6%

76.9%

2.6%

Any 2 losses

20.1%

16.7%

48.4%

<0.1%

45.1%

0.1%

41.1%

0.2%

40.4%

0.1%

39.5%

0.1%

38.7%

0.2%

37.7%

0.3%

35.7%

0.3%

34.3%

0.2%

33.3%

0.1%

32.4%

0.1%

30.8%

0.3%

30.4%

0.1%

29.4%

0.1%

26.7%

0.2%

26.3%

0.4%

23.7%

0.2%

23.6%

0.6%

22.2%

1.5%

20.4%

0.8%

20.0%

2.2%

19.3%

0.2%

18.6%

1.0%

17.7%

0.4%

16.6%

1.6%

15.3%

0.4%

12.6%

1.7%

10.9%

2.9%

Any 3 losses

0.9%

2.4%

3.6%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

1.8%

0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.3%

1.0%

0.2%

0.8%

0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.7%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com