Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L27-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W41-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W26-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:4% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:19% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:1% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:12% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:21% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:12% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:16% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 57.1% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 25.0% |
| 5-3 | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 40.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 20.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.5%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisville
Louisiana
Western KentuckyStanford
Florida State
NC State
Virginia TechCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
StanfordCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 4.3%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 3 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22