Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
31.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:12% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:59% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:74% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:32% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:88% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 17.7% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 33.6% | 32.7% |
| 5-3 | 29.2% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6% (-0.3%) | 31.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.8% (-0.0%) | 31.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.9% (+0.1%) | 31.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 37.6% (+5.8%) | 31.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 32.3% (+0.4%) | 31.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 32.6% (+0.7%) | 31.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.9% (+1.1%) | 31.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.3%) | 32.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 33.3% (+1.5%) | 31.6% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisville
Wake Forest
Stanford
North Carolina
Florida State
Virginia TechCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida StateCCG: 32.9% • Scenario: 28.9%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
99.4%
2.7%
100.0%
1.5%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.9%
0.3%
98.7%
<0.1%
97.8%
0.4%
97.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.5%
12.2%100.0%
1.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.2%
0.5%98.6%
0.3%98.4%
1.0%98.2%
0.3%97.5%
<0.1%97.4%
3.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.3%
2.2%96.6%
0.5%96.1%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%50.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%48.4%
0.1%47.0%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%24.3%
0.3%22.9%
0.2%22.1%
0.7%Any 3 losses
52.9%
24.9%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
0.3%98.4%
0.5%98.3%
1.0%97.9%
0.2%97.7%
3.4%97.3%
2.3%96.4%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%52.2%
0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.2%48.0%
<0.1%47.3%
0.1%46.6%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
0.4%45.8%
0.3%45.5%
<0.1%44.7%
0.6%44.0%
0.7%44.0%
1.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.7%
0.3%40.9%
0.7%40.2%
0.1%39.7%
0.4%39.3%
0.1%39.1%
0.4%37.3%
<0.1%37.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%29.0%
0.2%28.8%
1.5%28.3%
2.2%26.9%
0.3%20.2%
0.7%19.5%
4.7%2.0%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
25.0%
20.5%69.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%55.9%
0.1%48.4%
0.4%47.0%
0.3%46.0%
0.1%44.4%
0.7%43.6%
0.4%43.4%
0.2%43.2%
0.8%43.0%
0.7%42.3%
0.2%41.5%
1.2%40.7%
0.4%39.9%
0.5%30.4%
1.6%29.2%
2.2%20.9%
5.0%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.5%1.5%
0.2%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.2%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.9%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.7%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22