Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ClemsonCLEM | 1-0 | 2-1 | 56.0% | |
| T1 |  LouisvilleLOU | 1-0 | 3-0 | 31.9% | |
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 1-0 | 3-1 | 2.8% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 1-0 | 3-1 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  StanfordSTAN | 1-0 | 2-1 | <0.1% | |
| 6 |  SyracuseSYR | 1-1 | 2-1 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  Florida StateFSU | 1-2 | 1-3 | 0.3% | |
| T7 |  Georgia TechGT | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0.3% | |
| T9 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 4-0 | 57.6% | |
| T9 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 3-1 | 26.9% | |
| T9 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9.5% | |
| T9 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 4-0 | 8.1% | |
| T9 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 3-1 | 3.2% | |
| T9 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 4-0 | 1.3% | |
| T9 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-1 | 3-1 | 1.1% | |
| T9 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0.7% | |
| T9 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-1 | 1-2 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 57.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 57.9% (+0.3%) | 57.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 57.5% (-0.1%) | 57.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 57.4% (-0.2%) | 57.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.0% (+4.4%) | 57.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 56.8% (-0.7%) | 57.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 56.8% (-0.7%) | 57.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.9% (+5.3%) | 55.4% (-2.2%) | |
| 57.6% (+0.0%) | 57.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.7% (-28.8%) | 63.3% (+5.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
StanfordNorth Carolina
Holy CrossFlorida StateVirginia TechCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MiamiCCG: 63.3% • Scenario: 83.3%
Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA | 99.6% | 84.4% | 24.9% | 0.3% | 57.6% |
| ClemsonCLEM | 99.4% | 81.0% | 17.6% | 0.2% | 56.0% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 100% | 97.7% | 32.7% | 0.6% | 31.9% |
| SMUSMU | 99.2% | 73.0% | 14.3% | <0.1% | 26.9% |
| Virginia TechVT | 100% | 86.6% | 19.2% | 0.2% | 9.5% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | 82.7% | 20.1% | 0.1% | 8.1% |
| North CarolinaUNC | 95.9% | 53.7% | 6.0% | <0.1% | 3.2% |
| Boston CollegeBC | 100% | 81.1% | 16.5% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | 91.9% | 25.7% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| CaliforniaCAL | - | 80.7% | 9.1% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| NC StateNCSU | - | 58.0% | 6.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | - | 68.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| VirginiaUVA | 100% | 91.5% | 28.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Georgia TechGT | - | - | 24.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | 57.1% | 25.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| SyracuseSYR | - | 71.4% | 10.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | - | - | 23.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClemsonCLEM(1-0) | 20.1% | 38.2% | 28.8% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.6 |
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | 19.4% | 36.8% | 28.9% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6 |
| SMUSMU(0-0) | 5.7% | 22.7% | 33.0% | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| LouisvilleLOU(1-0) | 3.4% | 17.7% | 33.6% | 29.2% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | 5.6 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | 0.6% | 5.8% | 20.1% | 31.8% | 26.4% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | 0.5% | 5.0% | 16.7% | 27.9% | 27.4% | 15.9% | 5.5% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.8% | 13.3% | 25.3% | 28.8% | 19.1% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 4.3 |
| Boston CollegeBC(1-0) | 0.1% | 1.6% | 8.5% | 22.6% | 32.1% | 24.4% | 9.2% | 1.5% | - | 4.0 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 33.7% | 25.6% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 3.8 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 5.3% | 17.6% | 30.7% | 28.3% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 3.6 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 12.7% | 26.4% | 30.6% | 19.6% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 3.3 |
| Georgia TechGT(1-2) | - | - | 0.9% | 8.5% | 26.0% | 36.5% | 23.1% | 5.0% | - | 3.1 |
| Florida StateFSU(1-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 4.6% | 19.5% | 36.8% | 30.6% | 8.0% | - | 2.8 |
| VirginiaUVA(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 17.5% | 32.9% | 31.6% | 12.2% | - | 2.7 |
| SyracuseSYR(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 12.0% | 29.5% | 36.8% | 18.8% | - | 2.4 |
| StanfordSTAN(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 9.3% | 27.6% | 40.3% | 20.9% | - | 2.3 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.3% | 18.1% | 33.5% | 31.1% | 11.1% | 1.8 |
Data from 2024-09-22