SMUMustangs

4-1 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

41.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	@NevadaNEV	W29-24
1	8/31	vsHouston ChristianHCU	W59-7
2	9/06	vsBYUBYU	L15-18
4	9/21	vsTCUTCU	W66-42
5	9/28	vsFlorida StateFSU	W42-16
6	10/05	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:48%
8	10/19	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:91%
9	10/26	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:61%
10	11/02	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:86%
12	11/16	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:88%
13	11/23	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:86%
14	11/30	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:83%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	14.1%	98.9%
7-1	35.9%	67.8%
6-2	32.5%	10.4%
5-3	13.9%	0.0%
4-4	3.2%	0%
3-5	0.4%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

40.8%

38.6%

14.7%

3.8%

2.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU	67.4% (+25.7%)	18.5% (-23.2%)
Wake ForestWAKE@NC StateNCSU	41.6% (-0.1%)	41.7% (+0.0%)
Boston CollegeBC@VirginiaUVA	41.6% (-0.0%)	41.7% (+0.0%)
DukeDUKE@Georgia TechGT	41.3% (-0.3%)	42.1% (+0.4%)
ClemsonCLEM@Florida StateFSU	39.3% (-2.4%)	49.5% (+7.8%)
PittsburghPITT@North CarolinaUNC	42.0% (+0.3%)	41.5% (-0.2%)
Virginia TechVT@StanfordSTAN	41.3% (-0.4%)	43.6% (+1.9%)
SyracuseSYR@UNLVUNLV	42.4% (+0.7%)	41.6% (-0.1%)
MiamiMIA@CaliforniaCAL	39.8% (-1.9%)	49.2% (+7.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

SMU

Virginia

Florida State

Stanford

Syracuse

California

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

SMU

CCG: 67.4% • Scenario: 47.4%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

98.9%

14.1%

Any 1 loss

67.8%

35.9%

87.5%

2.1%

84.1%

3.0%

81.9%

2.4%

81.8%

1.3%

80.7%

2.2%

77.1%

9.0%

51.7%

15.9%

Any 2 losses

10.4%

32.5%

25.9%

0.5%

25.4%

0.3%

24.9%

0.4%

24.2%

0.4%

24.0%

0.2%

23.4%

0.3%

23.3%

0.2%

22.8%

0.2%

22.8%

0.4%

20.2%

0.5%

18.4%

0.8%

15.6%

1.3%

14.8%

1.9%

14.8%

1.5%

14.6%

1.4%

10.1%

1.5%

9.2%

2.3%

8.3%

3.3%

7.6%

2.7%

7.1%

2.5%

5.1%

9.9%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com