Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W26-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W26-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W26-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W45-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W21-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:34% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:17% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 99.4% |
| 6-2 | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| 5-3 | 24.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 34.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (-0.2%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.2%) | 3.1% (+1.4%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Stanford
NC State
Virginia
California
Wake Forest
North CarolinaCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Wake ForestCCG: 3.1% • Scenario: 10.6%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
0.8%Any 1 loss
11.5%
8.0%29.7%
0.5%22.9%
0.3%
22.9%
0.4%
12.0%
0.8%
8.4%
1.6%
8.1%
4.2%1.0%
0.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06