Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:34% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:95% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 13.3% | 97.0% |
| 6-2 | 41.1% | 24.9% |
| 5-3 | 35.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 27.7% (+4.5%) | 19.2% (-4.0%) | |
| 22.9% (-0.3%) | 24.3% (+1.1%) | |
| 23.2% (-0.0%) | 23.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 24.9% (+1.8%) | 23.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 19.7% (-3.5%) | 23.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 23.3% (+0.1%) | 23.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.6% (-18.5%) | 23.5% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
FloridaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ole MissGeorgiaCCG: 28.0% • Scenario: 46.0%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.0%
12.5%Any 1 loss
26.3%
39.6%98.4%
0.1%
97.0%
0.7%
33.3%
0.2%28.4%
0.8%27.7%
8.2%24.2%
23.9%
22.7%
5.7%Any 2 losses
21.9%
2.8%87.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%26.7%
0.4%26.0%
0.2%24.4%
1.2%21.4%
0.3%15.4%
<0.1%0.5%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06