Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W16-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-19 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L15-25 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L3-34 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:73% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:26% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:27% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.7% | 45.6% |
| 5-3 | 6.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 37.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 25.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Vanderbilt
AuburnOklahoma
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi State
Alabama
KentuckyCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaAlabamaCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 38.9%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
45.0%
0.7%
50.7%
<0.1%
0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13