Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-13

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE3-06-078.2%
T1Penn StPSU3-06-042.3%
T1IndianaIU3-06-04.5%
T4Ohio StOSU2-15-157.7%
T4MichiganMICH2-14-29.4%
T4IowaIOWA2-14-24.3%
T4WisconsinWIS2-14-22.9%
T4IllinoisILL2-15-10.2%
T4NebraskaNEB2-15-1<0.1%
T10WashingtonWASH2-24-30.3%
T10MinnesotaMINN2-24-3<0.1%
T12RutgersRUTG1-24-2<0.1%
T12Michigan StMSU1-23-3-
T12NorthwesternNU1-23-3-
15USCUSC1-33-3-
T16MarylandMD0-33-3-
T16PurduePUR0-31-5-
T16UCLAUCLA0-41-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

141.0%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
227.9%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
310.0%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
44.4%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
52.3%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
62.3%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
72.3%
MichiganMICH
vs
PSUPenn St
81.7%
IowaIOWA
vs
OSUOhio St
91.6%
IowaIOWA
vs
OREOregon
101.4%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WISWisconsin
111.1%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
120.9%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
130.9%
OregonORE
vs
WISWisconsin
140.7%
IowaIOWA
vs
PSUPenn St
150.4%
Penn StPSU
vs
WISWisconsin

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 78.2%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
OregonORE@PurduePUR
78.9%
(+0.7%)		40.2%
(-38.0%)
MichiganMICH@IllinoisILL
78.1%
(-0.1%)		79.0%
(+0.8%)
NebraskaNEB@IndianaIU
79.1%
(+0.9%)		77.8%
(-0.5%)
UCLAUCLA@RutgersRUTG
78.4%
(+0.1%)		78.1%
(-0.1%)
USCUSC@MarylandMD
77.7%
(-0.5%)		79.6%
(+1.4%)
WisconsinWIS@NorthwesternNU
77.9%
(-0.4%)		79.2%
(+1.0%)
IowaIOWA@Michigan StMSU
77.5%
(-0.8%)		80.9%
(+2.7%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

PurduePurdueIllinoisIllinoisMarylandMarylandNorthwesternNorthwesternMichigan StMichigan State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregonMichigan StMichigan State

CCG: 81.6% • Scenario: 22.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
OregonORE100%91.6%26.1%0.1%78.2%
Ohio StOSU-100%28.8%0.2%57.7%
Penn StPSU100%65.9%6.1%<0.1%42.3%
MichiganMICH-92.7%19.7%0.1%9.4%
IndianaIU96.5%49.0%2.0%-4.5%
IowaIOWA-41.2%1.8%-4.3%
WisconsinWIS-94.5%14.6%<0.1%2.9%
WashingtonWASH--57.9%0.2%0.3%
IllinoisILL-82.2%5.1%-0.2%
NebraskaNEB-80.0%5.5%<0.1%<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN--7.9%<0.1%<0.1%
RutgersRUTG--4.2%-<0.1%
MarylandMD-----
Michigan StMSU--2.9%--
NorthwesternNU--23.1%--
PurduePUR-----
UCLAUCLA-----
USCUSC-----

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(3-0)31.9%45.0%19.3%3.4%0.3%<0.1%0.0%---8.0
Penn StPSU(3-0)13.3%40.9%33.3%10.9%1.5%0.1%0.0%---7.5
Ohio StOSU(2-1)-45.8%41.4%11.5%1.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.3
IndianaIU(3-0)0.4%7.3%29.1%38.5%20.4%4.2%0.2%---6.2
IowaIOWA(2-1)-9.1%27.4%33.5%21.2%7.3%1.3%<0.1%--6.1
MichiganMICH(2-1)-4.3%27.0%42.0%21.6%4.6%0.4%<0.1%--6.0
WisconsinWIS(2-1)-1.5%10.5%28.0%33.9%20.2%5.4%0.5%--5.2
USCUSC(1-3)---20.5%41.2%28.3%8.7%1.2%<0.1%-4.7
IllinoisILL(2-1)-0.1%2.7%16.4%34.2%31.6%13.1%1.9%--4.6
WashingtonWASH(2-2)--0.6%7.3%28.5%40.6%20.5%2.5%--4.2
NebraskaNEB(2-1)-<0.1%1.0%7.5%24.3%37.2%25.0%4.9%--4.1
MinnesotaMINN(2-2)--0.4%4.8%20.6%37.5%28.9%7.8%--3.9
RutgersRUTG(1-2)--0.1%2.1%11.3%27.4%33.6%20.4%5.1%-3.3
Michigan StMSU(1-2)--<0.1%0.9%7.4%25.6%38.9%23.4%3.7%-3.1
NorthwesternNU(1-2)--<0.1%0.7%6.6%25.3%40.4%23.9%3.1%-3.1
MarylandMD(0-3)---<0.1%0.6%5.9%22.6%38.2%26.9%5.8%2.0
UCLAUCLA(0-4)----<0.1%1.3%8.9%27.5%40.5%21.7%1.3
PurduePUR(0-3)---0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.5%6.3%33.5%59.7%0.5

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com