OregonDucks

6-0 T1st (3-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

78.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsIdahoIDHO	W24-14
2	9/07	vsBoise StateBOIS	W37-34
3	9/14	@Oregon StateORST	W49-14
5	9/28	@UCLAUCLA	W34-13
6	10/04	vsMichigan StateMSU	W31-10
7	10/12	vsOhio StateOSU	W32-31
8	10/18	@PurduePUR	Win prob:98%
9	10/26	vsIllinoisILL	Win prob:94%
10	11/02	@MichiganMICH	Win prob:56%
11	11/09	vsMarylandMD	Win prob:94%
12	11/16	@WisconsinWIS	Win prob:75%
14	11/30	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:87%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	31.9%	100.0%
8-1	45.0%	91.6%
7-2	19.3%	26.1%
6-3	3.4%	0.1%
5-4	0.3%	0%
4-5	0.0%	0%
3-6	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

53.1%

36.1%

5.6%

3.0%

2.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
OregonORE@PurduePUR	78.9% (+0.7%)	40.2% (-38.0%)
MichiganMICH@IllinoisILL	78.1% (-0.1%)	79.0% (+0.8%)
NebraskaNEB@IndianaIU	79.1% (+0.9%)	77.8% (-0.5%)
UCLAUCLA@RutgersRUTG	78.4% (+0.1%)	78.1% (-0.1%)
USCUSC@MarylandMD	77.7% (-0.5%)	79.6% (+1.4%)
WisconsinWIS@NorthwesternNU	77.9% (-0.4%)	79.2% (+1.0%)
IowaIOWA@Michigan StateMSU	77.5% (-0.8%)	80.9% (+2.7%)

Best Winner Combination for

Purdue

Illinois

Maryland

Northwestern

Michigan State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Oregon

Michigan State

CCG: 81.6% • Scenario: 22.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

31.9%

Any 1 loss

91.6%

45.0%

93.1%

24.8%

91.3%

5.0%

91.0%

2.0%

91.0%

2.0%

89.2%

10.6%

79.9%

0.6%

Any 2 losses

26.1%

19.3%

45.2%

0.1%

40.8%

0.3%

39.8%

0.2%

39.2%

0.3%

37.5%

<0.1%

34.1%

0.6%

31.6%

<0.1%

31.4%

0.7%

31.3%

1.6%

31.3%

<0.1%

30.3%

1.6%

28.4%

3.8%

27.9%

0.5%

26.1%

1.4%

20.1%

8.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com