Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-24 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W24-5 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L18-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W27-17 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L16-40 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:51% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:50% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:20% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.6% | 57.9% |
| 6-3 | 7.3% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 40.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Purdue
Michigan
Indiana
Rutgers
USC
Northwestern
Michigan StateCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaUSCCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 46.2%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
57.9%
0.6%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13