Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W30-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W27-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L17-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 4.3% | 92.7% |
| 7-2 | 27.0% | 19.7% |
| 6-3 | 42.0% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 21.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.3% (-0.1%) | 12.9% (+3.5%) | |
| 10.7% (+1.3%) | 2.6% (-6.8%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.3%) | 9.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.0%) | 9.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.7% (+0.3%) | 8.8% (-0.6%) | |
| 9.5% (+0.1%) | 9.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 9.0% (-0.4%) | 10.7% (+1.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Purdue
Illinois
Nebraska
Rutgers
USC
Northwestern
Michigan StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganCCG: 10.7% • Scenario: 83.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.7%
4.3%Any 1 loss
19.7%
27.1%48.9%
0.2%48.5%
0.9%47.6%
0.5%
35.7%
1.6%
29.6%
5.5%
12.8%
18.3%Any 2 losses
0.9%
2.0%3.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
0.3%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
1.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13