Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W28-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W14-7 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:4% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| 7-2 | 1.0% | 5.5% |
| 6-3 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 24.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 37.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Purdue
IllinoisNebraska
UCLA
USC
Wisconsin
Michigan StateCCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NebraskaCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 35.3%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
80.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
5.6%
1.0%
21.1%
<0.1%18.2%
0.1%
18.0%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%
1.1%
0.7%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13