Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L19-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L7-35 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W40-16 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 9.1% | 41.2% |
| 7-2 | 27.4% | 1.8% |
| 6-3 | 33.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 21.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2% (-0.1%) | 6.8% (+2.5%) | |
| 4.2% (-0.0%) | 4.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.6% (+0.3%) | 4.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.0%) | 4.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.0%) | 4.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.2%) | 4.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 5.4% (+1.1%) | 0.3% (-4.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Purdue
Illinois
Nebraska
UCLA
Maryland
WisconsinIowaCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 5.4% • Scenario: 77.5%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
41.2%
9.1%Any 1 loss
1.8%
27.4%
2.7%
3.4%
2.6%
2.5%2.4%
4.1%1.9%
5.6%1.5%
3.4%1.0%
8.4%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13