Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W77-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-28 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W41-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:49% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:6% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 96.5% |
| 8-1 | 7.3% | 49.0% |
| 7-2 | 29.1% | 2.0% |
| 6-3 | 38.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4% (-0.1%) | 8.1% (+3.6%) | |
| 4.5% (+0.0%) | 4.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.1% (-3.4%) | 6.3% (+1.8%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.1%) | 4.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.1%) | 4.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.2%) | 5.2% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Purdue
IllinoisIndiana
UCLA
Maryland
Northwestern
IowaCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaCCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 64.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.5%
0.4%Any 1 loss
49.0%
7.3%
91.1%
0.1%
89.9%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%
81.4%
1.0%
80.4%
0.4%
38.6%
5.6%Any 2 losses
2.0%
29.1%50.0%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%15.0%
0.5%14.5%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.3%
0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%7.2%
1.0%2.7%
3.1%2.5%
0.4%2.1%
2.0%1.0%
5.8%0.8%
15.6%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13