Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-13 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-42 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-6 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W42-7 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:72% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:34% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.5% | 94.5% |
| 7-2 | 10.5% | 14.6% |
| 6-3 | 28.0% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 33.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9% (-0.0%) | 4.8% (+1.9%) | |
| 2.7% (-0.2%) | 3.9% (+1.0%) | |
| 3.3% (+0.3%) | 2.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 3.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.0% (+0.1%) | 2.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 3.9% (+0.9%) | 0.6% (-2.4%) | |
| 3.0% (+0.1%) | 2.6% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Purdue
Illinois
Nebraska
Rutgers
MarylandWisconsin
Michigan StateCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WisconsinCCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 71.4%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.5%
1.5%Any 1 loss
14.6%
10.5%
31.9%
0.3%30.5%
0.9%
25.7%
0.6%
22.9%
1.6%
9.4%
2.8%
9.0%
4.3%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13