Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:23% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:44% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 72.7% |
| 7-2 | 3.2% | 22.5% |
| 6-3 | 13.6% | 0.9% |
| 5-4 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (+0.6%) | 0.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.9% (+1.8%) | 0.4% (-0.7%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.1%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.2%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.6%) | 0.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
TCUColorado
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Baylor
UCF
HoustonCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 2.9% • Scenario: 26.0%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
72.7%
0.3%Any 1 loss
22.5%
3.2%29.6%
0.3%
27.1%
0.8%26.1%
0.2%
25.6%
0.5%
22.9%
0.4%
14.5%
1.0%Any 2 losses
0.9%
12.8%2.3%
0.6%2.1%
0.3%1.6%
1.4%1.6%
0.3%1.2%
1.1%0.9%
0.6%0.7%
1.7%0.7%
1.3%0.7%
2.9%0.5%
0.7%0.5%
1.0%0.5%
0.8%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13