Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-13
Conference Standings
| T1 | 3-0 | 6-0 | 68.3% | ||
| T1 | 3-0 | 6-0 | 51.9% | ||
| T1 | 3-0 | 5-1 | 39.3% | ||
| T4 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 25.6% | ||
| T4 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 5.4% | ||
| T4 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 2.3% | ||
| T4 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 1.7% | ||
| T4 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 1.0% | ||
| T9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 2.8% | ||
| T9 | 1-2 | 4-2 | 1.3% | ||
| T9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0.2% | ||
| T9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0.2% | ||
| T9 | 1-2 | 2-4 | <0.1% | ||
| T14 | 0-3 | 1-5 | <0.1% | ||
| T14 | 0-3 | 3-3 | <0.1% | ||
| T14 | 0-3 | 2-4 | - | ||
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely
CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact on
CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 68.3%
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 72.0% (+3.7%) | 67.3% (-1.0%) | |
| 67.3% (-0.9%) | 68.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 68.2% (-0.1%) | 68.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 67.5% (-0.8%) | 68.8% (+0.6%) | |
| 66.8% (-1.4%) | 70.7% (+2.4%) | |
| 72.2% (+3.9%) | 67.3% (-1.0%) | |
| 45.1% (-23.2%) | 71.8% (+3.5%) | |
| 68.7% (+0.4%) | 68.1% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 71.8% • Scenario: 86.8%
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 94.8% | 52.4% | 4.4% | - | 68.3% | |
| 100% | 88.9% | 44.5% | 2.4% | - | 51.9% | |
| 100% | 92.6% | 42.9% | 3.6% | - | 39.3% | |
| - | 97.2% | 41.5% | 4.0% | <0.1% | 25.6% | |
| - | 94.7% | 37.0% | 2.3% | - | 5.4% | |
| - | - | 26.4% | 1.8% | - | 2.8% | |
| - | 97.5% | 45.0% | 3.6% | - | 2.3% | |
| - | 92.7% | 40.1% | 2.6% | - | 1.7% | |
| - | - | 48.5% | 1.4% | - | 1.3% | |
| - | 72.7% | 22.5% | 0.9% | - | 1.0% | |
| - | - | 27.8% | 1.2% | - | 0.2% | |
| - | - | 74.8% | 7.8% | - | 0.2% | |
| - | - | - | 7.0% | - | <0.1% | |
| - | - | - | 6.8% | - | <0.1% | |
| - | - | 41.2% | 2.2% | - | <0.1% | |
| - | - | - | 1.1% | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-13
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.4% | 36.4% | 30.1% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 7.5 | |
| 10.2% | 29.5% | 33.8% | 19.7% | 5.9% | 0.9% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 7.2 | |
| 4.0% | 21.1% | 34.5% | 27.2% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 6.7 | |
| - | 10.7% | 33.3% | 34.7% | 16.8% | 4.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.3 | |
| - | 1.4% | 9.4% | 25.3% | 33.3% | 22.5% | 7.2% | 0.8% | - | - | 5.1 | |
| - | - | 8.6% | 26.9% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | - | 5.0 | |
| - | 0.2% | 3.3% | 15.5% | 31.7% | 31.5% | 15.0% | 2.8% | - | - | 4.5 | |
| - | 0.3% | 3.2% | 13.6% | 28.5% | 32.3% | 18.1% | 4.0% | - | - | 4.4 | |
| - | 0.3% | 2.9% | 13.1% | 28.5% | 32.4% | 18.7% | 4.2% | - | - | 4.4 | |
| - | - | 2.3% | 12.7% | 28.3% | 31.5% | 18.8% | 5.7% | 0.7% | - | 4.3 | |
| - | - | 0.5% | 5.0% | 16.9% | 30.3% | 29.5% | 14.9% | 2.9% | - | 3.6 | |
| - | - | 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.2% | 22.6% | 34.1% | 25.6% | 7.8% | - | 3.0 | |
| - | - | - | 0.4% | 4.3% | 17.8% | 33.4% | 30.0% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 2.7 | |
| - | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 13.3% | 31.5% | 36.2% | 15.6% | - | 2.5 | |
| - | - | - | 0.3% | 3.2% | 13.5% | 29.0% | 32.1% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 2.4 | |
| - | - | - | 0.3% | 3.2% | 13.1% | 28.0% | 32.2% | 18.8% | 4.5% | 2.4 |
Data from 2024-10-13