Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L34-35 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L42-66 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W38-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L19-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:31% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.5% | 27.8% |
| 6-3 | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| 5-4 | 16.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.4%) | 0.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateTCU
Arizona
Arizona State
Kansas State
Baylor
UCF
HoustonCCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 31.1%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
27.8%
0.5%Any 1 loss
1.2%
5.0%2.2%
0.4%1.8%
0.6%
1.5%
1.2%0.9%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
1.0%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13