Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W57-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W35-34 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L21-48 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L13-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L13-19 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:13% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:35% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:30% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.1% | 74.8% |
| 6-3 | 1.5% | 7.8% |
| 5-4 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 22.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 34.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 25.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 7.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.9%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
West Virginia
BaylorUCF
HoustonCCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 13.2%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
74.8%
0.1%Any 1 loss
7.7%
1.5%12.9%
0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.1%
0.2%6.9%
0.2%
6.4%
0.7%
4.0%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13