Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W22-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L10-23 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L19-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:69% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:47% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:56% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:32% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 2.3% | 48.5% |
| 6-3 | 12.7% | 1.4% |
| 5-4 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (+0.4%) | 1.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-1.2%) | 1.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.2%) | 1.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.6%) | 1.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateUtah
Colorado
Arizona State
West Virginia
Baylor
Iowa State
HoustonCCG: 15.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 68.9%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
48.5%
2.3%Any 1 loss
1.4%
12.7%
2.8%
1.0%2.2%
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%1.8%
1.7%
1.1%
2.5%0.7%
4.7%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13